Understanding Card Odds
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Disclaimer: This is a very simple example meant only as a starting point for the subject of card odds. Entire books have been written on the subject.
A player who understands the basics of pot odds will have made a giant step toward good decisions that are crucial when investing in a hand of poker. If the player has a good hand (three of a kind for instance), and sees that there is $20 in the pot, it is probably a good idea to invest another $4 when someone has bet that amount. After all, this 5 to 1 ratio at the time of the first bet means there will be $20 in the pot when our player calls. So, for that last investment of $4, the player can get back $20, plus the $4 that he puts in.
But what are the chances of winning that money?
That’s where the connection between pot odds and card odds comes into play. What are card odds? Quite simply, the player must have some idea of his or her chances of getting the card needed to make a winning hand. This is good information to have when deciding whether to put more money in the middle.
Lou Krieger and Sheree Bykofsky have this to say about this relationship in their fine book “Secrets The Pros Won’t Tell You About Winning Hold ‘Em Poker” (Kensington Publishing Corp. 2006).
“The relationship between the pot’s size and your chances of making the winning hand threads its way through every form of poker you might play.”
The amateur might ask, “Really?” The pro will answer, “Absolutely.” We’ve seen that if the pot contains $20 and the player must put in $4 to call a bet, the odds are 5 to 1. That is basic pot odds calculation. But the player should also have some idea of his or her chances to win the hand if the $4 is invested.
How does the player come up with some idea of the chances of winning? This subject has spawned books and videos, CDs and online education, so it would be difficult to answer the question thoroughly in limited space. For basic learning, let’s assume that our player is holding two Spades in Hold ‘Em and the flop (first three cards) on the table includes two more spades. That means our player will need one more Spade in the last two community cards to make a flush. (It is sometimes hard to make money with a flush, unless you hold the Ace or King, for example. But that is another poker lesson in itself.)
There are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. Four Spades are known – two in the player’s hand and two on the table so far. That leaves nine Spades available to make a flush for our player (13 – 4 = 9). Our player can see five cards of the 52 in the deck. That leaves 47 cards unknown, nine of them Spades. So, nine cards will help our player’s hand, 38 won’t (47 – 9 = 38).
Our player has 38 to 9 (4.22 to 1) odds against making a flush and a possible winning hand. But pot odds are 5 to 1. The relationship between those numbers is at the heart of this very basic decision in poker. Since there is more than four times as much in the pot as it costs to call, the player may want to continue. It’s a close call in this case.
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